9/22 ALABAMA-24 over texas a&m –
ALA is playing incredibly well winning by 37, 50 and now 55 points. A&M has the horses to at least compete, but are unlikely to get within 24 with a sophomore QB with 3 games of experience in Jimbo’s offense.
9/22 clemson-16.5 over GEORGIA TECH –
Expect clemson to shutdown the triple option of GT with their great defense that is only allowing 2.6 yards per rush. Clemson has seen this offense for several years and will be ready. GT’s defense just doesn’t have the talent to matchup with clemson’s offense.
9/22 virginia tech-28 over OLD DOMINION –
A huge talent gap here. vt had an extra week of rest due their game being cancelled due to weather so they should be hungry to play. OLD DOMINION just doesn’t have any weapons to hurt vt.
9/22 western michigan-7.5 over GEORGIA ST –
GS really hasn’t shown much this year while wm has shown they can move the ball well with 621 yards against syracuse. A significant talent gap should enable wm to control the game.
9/18 Monday CHICAGO-3.5 over seattle – W
CHI has the advantage everywhere except at QB. Back to back road games to start the season is difficult and CHI is energized with the huge Khalil Mack trade. Trubisky played fairly well in his home MNF game last year. Mack will overwhelm whoever sea puts at right tackle. This sea defense has lost so much that chi will be able to run over them.
9/17 min-2.5 over GB – L
GB off an incredible comeback against the bears. MIN played ok against SF with Cousins making his first start. He should be more comfortable in his second game. Aaron Rogers knee is not 100% which might show up against a defense he traditionally struggles against. Davante Adams is also not 100% with a shoulder.
9/17 hou-3.5 over TEN – L
TEN is missing it’s 2 starting tackles and their top backup. Plus Mariota may not even be able to play which means Gabbert! Throw in the 7 hour weather-delayed game they had last week in MIAMI last week and it’s been a miserable week for TEN.
9/17 LAR-12 over ari – W
Bradford barely played in the preseason and had a rough first game so his confidence will be shaky. LAR are loaded on offense and defense. I don’t expect this to be close.
9/15 ohio st-12.5 over TCU – L
A fairly large talent gap that favors OSU. Only hope of upsetting OSU is to outscore them and TCU does not have the QB to do that as Shawn Robinson is only completing 48.1% and avg 6.8 yards per attempt. He can run but that’s not going to be enough against OSU. First big test for Haskins, but Rutgers was a good warmup and he was nearly perfect. TCU’s defense will be competitive but ultimately will not be able to hold up for 60 minutes.
9/15 alabama/MISSISSIPPI over 70 – L
A full game of Tua should yield even more points. MISS is missing their best CB in Jaylon Jones and their defense is giving up 552 yards per game on 5.9 yards per play. They have the passing game and the QB to at least score some against Alabama.
9/15 TEXAS A&M-25.5 over louisiana- monroe – W
A&M played clemson pretty even which was surprising. That game will instill belief in Jimbo Fisher’s coaching staff. Expect a confident A&M team to roll over an overmatched opponent.
9/15 colorado st/FLORIDA over 55.5 – W
FLA’s defense can’t tackle. col st’s defense is giving up 550 yards per game on 7.7 yards per play. FLA also lost Marco Wilson last week who was their best CB.
9/15 arizona st -4.5 over SAN DIEGO ST – L
Jumping on the Herm Edwards bandwagon as asu is maximizing their talent. They have a significant talent advantage over SDST so if they both play their best then it should be a 2 score victory for asu. Futhermore, SDST is missing their reliable starting QB Chapman. SDST did not look good against Sac St which is one of the worst teams in FBS. One last tidbit is Danny Gonzales, the asu defensive coordinator, was at SDST last year in the same role so he’ll have inside knowledge of the opponent.
9/13 Thursday boston college/WAKE FOREST under 54 – L
Hurricane Florence is coming so winds are forecasted to be 14MPH which will be a small factor. The game time was moved up to 5:30pm so travelers can get out before the wind really picks up. I expect the teams to try to get this game over with so everyone can go home early. Some things are more important than an amateur football game. Wake is starting a true freshman QB. BC has run 75% of the time so far this year.
9/9 NE-6.5 over hou – W
This line seems suspiciously low. Maybe NEs lack of depth at WR is the reason, but it is a bad idea to underestimate Belichick and Brady. Watson is back but hardly played during the preseason so I can’t see how he’ll be in top form. Brady played a decent amount in preseason. I suspect NE will have better luck containing Watson now that they have some film on him and played him once.
9/10 Monday lar/OAK under 49.5 – W
This is weird. The rams did not play their starting o-line together at all during preseason. Furthermore, Goff did not play a single snap. I doubt this is helpful for the first game of the season. Probably good for their long-term health though. Derek Carr only threw a few passes during preseason so he is unlikely to be in top form either.
9/8 BOISE ST-31 over connecticut – W
uconn is starting 7 freshmen and 2 transfers. They have a total of 17 freshmen in their 2-deep. In contrast BOISE ST is not starting any freshmen or transfers and only have 4 freshmen in their 2 deep. BOISE is off a nice road win at troy where they scored 56 against a traditionally tough troy defense. uconn only forced 1 punt against ucf.
9/8 MICHIGAN-28 over western michigan – W
MICHIGAN needs a strong performance to get everyone off their back after an inept offensive performance at notre dame. western michigan is not awful but their strength is offense which will be 90% negated by MICHIGANs top-notch defense. Their weakness is defense so this is just what the doctor ordered for MICHIGAN’s bland offense.
9/8 NEBRASKA-4.5 over colorado – L
NEB gets an extra week to prepare since their game was canceled. colorado looked good against col st but this time they will be at a talent disadvantage. colorado is starting 5 transfers and 2 freshmen. Their 2 deep is loaded with 11 transfers and 10 freshmen. This will be a fired up crowd in nebraska due to Scott Frost’s first game, so it’ll be a tough environment for all these newcomers.
9/8 TEXAS-23 over tulsa – L
Tom Hermann needs a blowout here to get everyone off his back. Tulsa does not do anything particularly well except run a hurry-up offense, but it did not look impressive last week against a very weak opponent in central arkansas. This is a classic get-well game.
9/8 ARIZONA ST+6 over michigan st – W
Basically 2 teams that are even talent-wise. Spread seems to be based upon last years results and the perception of Herm Edwards.
09/03/18 Monday FLORIDA ST-6.5 over virginia tech – L
virginia tech dismissed a starting corner, a nickel back and lost a JUCO CB transfer to injury. Of the 10 linebackers and defensive backs to make at least 10 tackles last season, nine are gone
08/30 Thursday MINNESOTA-17.5 over new mexico st -W
new mexico st opens on Sun 8/25 against wyoming in the late afternoon and then has to travel to MINN for a Thu afternoon game? This is MINN opener so they will be well rested.
09/01 washington st-3 over WYOMING – W
The talent differential is very large. Mike Leach’s Air Raid offense is plug and play so it is unlikely there will be a huge dropoff despite the turnover in QB & receivers. This will be wash st’s opener so they will be well rested while wyoming has to travel to NEW MEXICO ST the previous week.
09/01 auburn-2.5 over washington – W
Neutral field but in auburn’s backyard and washington has to travel cross country so a +2 advantage for auburn. auburn has the better talent and the better QB. wash is missing their best receiving TE in Hunter Bryant and their LT Trey Adams is coming back from an ACL.
09/01 NOTRE DAME+3 over michigan – W
Teams with equal rosters except at QB where Shea Patterson is a much better passer than Winbush. However, it is his first game at Michigan so don’t expect a peak performance while Winbush had a full year of starts.
Personal Picks 1-2
01/06 Saturday ten+7.5 over KC – W
Have you seen KC’s defense? They can’t stop anybody so expect a backdoor cover.
01/06 Saturday LAR-5.5 over atl – L
Great offense against a something-doesn’t-feel-right offense. Losing Kyle Shanahan as o-coordinator has had a big impact on ATL’s offense. Meanwhile the Rams offense under McVay look great with all kinds of creativity and timing.
01/07 NO-6 over car – L
Carolina can stop the run, but New Orleans has Brees hitting 72% of his passes and is averaging 8.1 YPA. Carolina’s run game is pretty poor except for Cam Newton. It is too much to ask for 1 player. Cam’s numbers are pretty poor this year at 6.7 YPA, 16 INTs and 35 sacks.
Personal Picks 2-2-0
12/31 nyj/NE under 44 – W
Bryce Petty is making his third start this season and 7th of his career. 13 degrees with 10MPH winds is the forecast. Excpect Patriots to kill the clock more in this game than usual to shorten the game and avoid risk of injury.
12/31 cin/BAL under 40.5 – L
24 degrees with 8MPH wind is the forecast. Cin is banged up on the o-line so don’t expect Dalton to hang on to the ball. BAL will try to run to exploit CIN weak run D.
12/31 kc/DEN under 38 – L
Paxton Lynch making is 2nd start of the season and 4th of his career. Forecast is 28 degrees with 8 MPH winds. A good chance KC will rest Alex Smith in the 2nd half. Definitely will not be taking any chances with him in a meaningless game.
12/31 dal/PHI under 39.5 – W
Doubt Foles will play the 2nd half since he is already their backup and the game is meaningless. Forecast is 22 degrees with 15 MPH winds.
Overall 135-100-11 57.4% +25.0 units
Computer Picks 4-2-0
Based on the Bounce System:
12/24 CIN+3 over det – W
Based on the Coaching System:
12/24 nyg+3 over ARI – L
Based on the Total Bounce System:
12/24 det/CIN over 44.5 – L
12/25 Monday oak/PHI under 47 – W
Continue reading “NFL Week 16 Picks”
Overall 131-97-11 56.5% +24.3 units
Computer Picks 4-0-0
Based on the Bounce System:
12/17 dal+3 over OAK – W
Based on the Total Bounce System:
12/17 mia/BUF over 39.5 – W
12/17 bal/CLE under 40 – W
Based on the Total Caution System:
12/17 atl/TB under 48 – W
Personal Picks 1-0-0
12/17. lar over SEA – W
SEA Probably missing 2 more probowlers on defense with Wright doubtful and Wagner very questionable. McVay seems like an offensive genius with the Goeff and Gurley dramatic turnarounds, so look for him to exploit this mismstch. Rams outplayed them earlier in the year; even though they lost, they outgained them375-241.