10/4 NE-3 over kc –
Belichick with 10 days to prepare for Mahones. Expect Brady to control the clock against KC’s poor pass defense (7.7 YPA). A primetime home game against the hottest young QB in ages is the type of game a veteran team and coach will get up for. KC’s best pass rusher Houston is doubtful with a hamstring.
10/9 Tuesday app st-9.5 over ARK ST –
app st has been dominate in all 3 phases. Their S&P+ is ridiculous. Assuming they are in the ballpark of their S&P+ rating they should be easy winners.
10/13 MICHIGAN-7 over wisconsin –
Bad matchup for wisconsin as their power running game faces a dominant MICH run D. wisconsin’s defense is not nearly as good as last years and with their injuries in the secondary, Patterson should have a big game despite Harbaugh’s vanilla offense.
10/13 missouri/ALABAMA under 74.5 –
ALABAMA is scoring with just 1 or 2 play drives. This has to regress to something more normal. Saban was unhappy with his defense last week so I expect a spirited effort even in garbage time. Missouri is missing their best WR Hall but ALABAMA is missing it’s best DB Diggs so they basically offset. Not sure if an ALABAMA total has ever been this high. Saban doesn’t run up the score, so expect a lot of running in the 4th quarter.
10/13 oklahoma st-6.5 over KANSAS ST –
KANSAS ST was lucky to beat baylor last week. okla st is off a home loss to iowa st. S&P+ makes okla st a 17 point favorite. okla st has a definite advantage in talent and this is a good buy low/sell high spot.
10/6 VIRGINIA TECH+6.5 over notre dame – L
This smells like a trap game for ND. They travel to hostile Blacksburg where they have never played. Ian Book has had smooth sailing in first 2 games playing with a lead and not throwing any interceptions. Bud Foster’s defense will surely put him under duress with a raucous home crowd. VT has a backup QB but he looked good last week in his first start and is a 4-year junior with experience from KU. In addition, ND lost it’s best offensive lineman Bars last week to injury.
10/6 FLORIDA+2.5 over lsu – W
These 2 teams seem very even. Both have acceptable QBs but not dynamic ones. Both have strong defenses. Both need to run the ball to succeed. FLA has better special teams stats and I believe the better coach with Dan Mullen.
10/6 clemson-17.5 over WAKE FOREST – W
clemson has a big talent advantage and with Trevor Lawrence healthy has a big edge in QB play. Both teams are starting true freshmen but Lawrence has lived up to his 5-star billing while Hartman is a 3-star. WF wants and needs to run the ball to be effective, but that is not a winning solution against clemson’s defense (2.7 YPC). WF’s hurry up will not bother clemson too much since they just played against syracuse’s hurry up.
10/4 Thursday NE-10 over ind – W
indy in a tough spot here after a dramatic OT loss where they played 84 defensive snaps and now have to travel to NE with just 3 days of rest (3-18-0 ATS playing on Thu after OT). NE regained their mojo with a dominant 38-7 win where they only played 43 defensive snaps. Gronk doubtful but Edelman returns and Gordon should be a little more comfortable in his 2nd game and TY Hilton looks doubtful so a fair exchange of injuries.
9/30 cleveland+2.5 over OAKLAND – L
Baker Mayfield looked very good against the jets and the cleveland offense looked so much better than with Tyrod Taylor. Oakland’s weak D will not challenge him. CLE’s pass D has been good so far so they should be able to handle Carr.
9/30 sf/LAC over 46.5 – W
No Jimmy G but Shanahan is an offensive coach and will still go for it. 2 subpar defenses and 2 good offenses in perfect weather should go over 46.5.
9/30 bal/PIT over 51.5 – L
pit’s porous defense forces them to a 5-wide look to make every game a shootout. BAL does not have the running game to chew clock.
9/29 NOTRE DAME-4 over stanford – W
stanford is off a miracle win at Oregon. ND switched to a competent passing QB which has made their offense pretty good. ND has the superior athletes and the defense is good enough to keep Bryce Love contained. Stanford has not been blocking well for Love at all this year.
9/29 BUFFALO-7 over army – L
army is off a near upset of OKLA where they took them to overtime. It was an exhausting game that included a dramatic goal-line stand and a last second missed field goal. Add in a long late night flight and army is going to have a tough time with a pretty good BUF team.
9/28 Friday memphis-14 over TULANE – L
TULANE has been outgained by all 3 FBS opponents and just doesn’t pose much of a threat to memphis with their weak offense (only scored max of 24 pts vs. any FBS teams) and mediocre defense. Memphis’ QB Brady White has been fantastic (72% comp and 9.9 YATT) and should be able to have his way.
9/29 michigan-14 over NORTHWESTERN – L
NORTHWESTERN is missing their leading RB who is also 2nd in receptions. Their already anemic offense (4.9 YPP) might get shutout by a top 5 michigan defense. Northwestern’s run D is actually pretty good, but Shea Patterson has been good (70% COMP, 8.1 YATT) despite Harbaugh’s pathetic passing tactics.
9/22 ALABAMA-24 over texas a&m – L
ALA is playing incredibly well winning by 37, 50 and now 55 points. A&M has the horses to at least compete, but are unlikely to get within 24 with a sophomore QB with 3 games of experience in Jimbo’s offense.
9/22 clemson-16.5 over GEORGIA TECH – W
Expect clemson to shutdown the triple option of GT with their great defense that is only allowing 2.6 yards per rush. Clemson has seen this offense for several years and will be ready. GT’s defense just doesn’t have the talent to matchup with clemson’s offense.
9/22 virginia tech-28 over OLD DOMINION – L
A huge talent gap here. vt had an extra week of rest due their game being cancelled due to weather so they should be hungry to play. OLD DOMINION just doesn’t have any weapons to hurt vt.
9/22 western michigan-7.5 over GEORGIA ST – W
GS really hasn’t shown much this year while wm has shown they can move the ball well with 621 yards against syracuse. A significant talent gap should enable wm to control the game.
9/22 michigan st-4.5 over INDIANA – W
mich st is off an upset loss and a bye week so they will be hungry. IND wants to run the ball but that will prove difficult against msu’s defense (1.3 YPC). mich st has the better QB (JR 8.3 YATT vs SO 6.3 YATT) and a pretty large talent gap overall.
9/21 Friday ILLINOIS+28 over penn state – L
This is not last year’s penn st team. They are significantly weaker and have 11 freshmen in the 2-deep. This is the game of the year for ILLINOIS on a Friday night so I expect a max effort. penn st might be looking forward to next week when they host ohio st.
9/22 boston college/PURDUE over 65.5 – L
As I learned the hardway this is not the BC offense of old. They still run a lot but are playing much faster and are hitting big plays in the passing game with competent QB play. David Blough played out of his mind with 572 yards 3TDs/1 INT and 10.1 YATT. He’s a senior with a lot of experience so even if he regresses it should not be by too much.
9/18 Monday CHICAGO-3.5 over seattle – W
CHI has the advantage everywhere except at QB. Back to back road games to start the season is difficult and CHI is energized with the huge Khalil Mack trade. Trubisky played fairly well in his home MNF game last year. Mack will overwhelm whoever sea puts at right tackle. This sea defense has lost so much that chi will be able to run over them.
9/17 min-2.5 over GB – L
GB off an incredible comeback against the bears. MIN played ok against SF with Cousins making his first start. He should be more comfortable in his second game. Aaron Rogers knee is not 100% which might show up against a defense he traditionally struggles against. Davante Adams is also not 100% with a shoulder.
9/17 hou-3.5 over TEN – L
TEN is missing it’s 2 starting tackles and their top backup. Plus Mariota may not even be able to play which means Gabbert! Throw in the 7 hour weather-delayed game they had last week in MIAMI last week and it’s been a miserable week for TEN.
9/17 LAR-12 over ari – W
Bradford barely played in the preseason and had a rough first game so his confidence will be shaky. LAR are loaded on offense and defense. I don’t expect this to be close.
9/15 ohio st-12.5 over TCU – L
A fairly large talent gap that favors OSU. Only hope of upsetting OSU is to outscore them and TCU does not have the QB to do that as Shawn Robinson is only completing 48.1% and avg 6.8 yards per attempt. He can run but that’s not going to be enough against OSU. First big test for Haskins, but Rutgers was a good warmup and he was nearly perfect. TCU’s defense will be competitive but ultimately will not be able to hold up for 60 minutes.
9/15 alabama/MISSISSIPPI over 70 – L
A full game of Tua should yield even more points. MISS is missing their best CB in Jaylon Jones and their defense is giving up 552 yards per game on 5.9 yards per play. They have the passing game and the QB to at least score some against Alabama.
9/15 TEXAS A&M-25.5 over louisiana- monroe – W
A&M played clemson pretty even which was surprising. That game will instill belief in Jimbo Fisher’s coaching staff. Expect a confident A&M team to roll over an overmatched opponent.
9/15 colorado st/FLORIDA over 55.5 – W
FLA’s defense can’t tackle. col st’s defense is giving up 550 yards per game on 7.7 yards per play. FLA also lost Marco Wilson last week who was their best CB.
9/15 arizona st -4.5 over SAN DIEGO ST – L
Jumping on the Herm Edwards bandwagon as asu is maximizing their talent. They have a significant talent advantage over SDST so if they both play their best then it should be a 2 score victory for asu. Futhermore, SDST is missing their reliable starting QB Chapman. SDST did not look good against Sac St which is one of the worst teams in FBS. One last tidbit is Danny Gonzales, the asu defensive coordinator, was at SDST last year in the same role so he’ll have inside knowledge of the opponent.
9/13 Thursday boston college/WAKE FOREST under 54 – L
Hurricane Florence is coming so winds are forecasted to be 14MPH which will be a small factor. The game time was moved up to 5:30pm so travelers can get out before the wind really picks up. I expect the teams to try to get this game over with so everyone can go home early. Some things are more important than an amateur football game. Wake is starting a true freshman QB. BC has run 75% of the time so far this year.
9/9 NE-6.5 over hou – W
This line seems suspiciously low. Maybe NEs lack of depth at WR is the reason, but it is a bad idea to underestimate Belichick and Brady. Watson is back but hardly played during the preseason so I can’t see how he’ll be in top form. Brady played a decent amount in preseason. I suspect NE will have better luck containing Watson now that they have some film on him and played him once.
9/10 Monday lar/OAK under 49.5 – W
This is weird. The rams did not play their starting o-line together at all during preseason. Furthermore, Goff did not play a single snap. I doubt this is helpful for the first game of the season. Probably good for their long-term health though. Derek Carr only threw a few passes during preseason so he is unlikely to be in top form either.