10/4 NE-3 over kc –
Belichick with 10 days to prepare for Mahones. Expect Brady to control the clock against KC’s poor pass defense (7.7 YPA). A primetime home game against the hottest young QB in ages is the type of game a veteran team and coach will get up for. KC’s best pass rusher Houston is doubtful with a hamstring.
10/9 Tuesday app st-9.5 over ARK ST –
app st has been dominate in all 3 phases. Their S&P+ is ridiculous. Assuming they are in the ballpark of their S&P+ rating they should be easy winners.
10/13 MICHIGAN-7 over wisconsin –
Bad matchup for wisconsin as their power running game faces a dominant MICH run D. wisconsin’s defense is not nearly as good as last years and with their injuries in the secondary, Patterson should have a big game despite Harbaugh’s vanilla offense.
10/13 missouri/ALABAMA under 74.5 –
ALABAMA is scoring with just 1 or 2 play drives. This has to regress to something more normal. Saban was unhappy with his defense last week so I expect a spirited effort even in garbage time. Missouri is missing their best WR Hall but ALABAMA is missing it’s best DB Diggs so they basically offset. Not sure if an ALABAMA total has ever been this high. Saban doesn’t run up the score, so expect a lot of running in the 4th quarter.
10/13 oklahoma st-6.5 over KANSAS ST –
KANSAS ST was lucky to beat baylor last week. okla st is off a home loss to iowa st. S&P+ makes okla st a 17 point favorite. okla st has a definite advantage in talent and this is a good buy low/sell high spot.
10/6 VIRGINIA TECH+6.5 over notre dame – L
This smells like a trap game for ND. They travel to hostile Blacksburg where they have never played. Ian Book has had smooth sailing in first 2 games playing with a lead and not throwing any interceptions. Bud Foster’s defense will surely put him under duress with a raucous home crowd. VT has a backup QB but he looked good last week in his first start and is a 4-year junior with experience from KU. In addition, ND lost it’s best offensive lineman Bars last week to injury.
10/6 FLORIDA+2.5 over lsu – W
These 2 teams seem very even. Both have acceptable QBs but not dynamic ones. Both have strong defenses. Both need to run the ball to succeed. FLA has better special teams stats and I believe the better coach with Dan Mullen.
10/6 clemson-17.5 over WAKE FOREST – W
clemson has a big talent advantage and with Trevor Lawrence healthy has a big edge in QB play. Both teams are starting true freshmen but Lawrence has lived up to his 5-star billing while Hartman is a 3-star. WF wants and needs to run the ball to be effective, but that is not a winning solution against clemson’s defense (2.7 YPC). WF’s hurry up will not bother clemson too much since they just played against syracuse’s hurry up.
10/4 Thursday NE-10 over ind – W
indy in a tough spot here after a dramatic OT loss where they played 84 defensive snaps and now have to travel to NE with just 3 days of rest (3-18-0 ATS playing on Thu after OT). NE regained their mojo with a dominant 38-7 win where they only played 43 defensive snaps. Gronk doubtful but Edelman returns and Gordon should be a little more comfortable in his 2nd game and TY Hilton looks doubtful so a fair exchange of injuries.