2018 NCAAF Week 7 Picks

10/9 Tuesday    app st-9.5 over ARK ST –

app st has been dominate in all 3 phases. Their S&P+ is ridiculous. Assuming they are in the ballpark of their S&P+ rating they should be easy winners.

 

10/13     MICHIGAN-7 over wisconsin –

Bad matchup for wisconsin as their power running game faces a dominant MICH run D.  wisconsin’s defense is not nearly as good as last years and with their injuries in the secondary, Patterson should have a big game despite Harbaugh’s vanilla offense.

 

10/13    missouri/ALABAMA under 74.5 –

ALABAMA is scoring with just 1 or 2 play drives. This has to regress to something more normal. Saban was unhappy with his defense last week so I expect a spirited effort even in garbage time. Missouri is missing their best WR Hall but ALABAMA is missing it’s best DB Diggs so they basically offset.  Not sure if an ALABAMA total has ever been this high. Saban doesn’t run up the score, so expect a lot of running in the 4th quarter.

 

10/13     oklahoma st-6.5 over KANSAS ST –

KANSAS ST was lucky to beat baylor last week. okla st is off a home loss to iowa st. S&P+ makes okla st a 17 point favorite. okla st has a definite advantage in talent and this is a good buy low/sell high spot.

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