2018 NCAAF Week 2 Picks

3-2-0

9/8     BOISE ST-31 over connecticut – W

uconn is starting 7 freshmen and 2 transfers. They have a total of 17 freshmen in their 2-deep. In contrast BOISE ST is not starting any freshmen or transfers and only have 4 freshmen in their 2 deep. BOISE is off a nice road win at troy where they scored 56 against a traditionally tough troy defense. uconn only forced 1 punt against ucf.

 

9/8     MICHIGAN-28 over western michigan – W

MICHIGAN needs a strong performance to get everyone off their back after an inept offensive performance at notre dame. western michigan is not awful but their strength is offense which will be 90% negated by MICHIGANs top-notch defense. Their weakness is defense so this is just what the doctor ordered for MICHIGAN’s bland offense.

 

9/8     NEBRASKA-4.5 over colorado – L

NEB gets an extra week to prepare since their game was canceled. colorado looked good against col st but this time they will be at a talent disadvantage.  colorado is starting 5 transfers and 2 freshmen. Their 2 deep is loaded with 11 transfers and 10 freshmen. This will be a fired up crowd in nebraska due to Scott Frost’s first game, so it’ll be a tough environment for all these newcomers.

 

9/8    TEXAS-23 over tulsa – L

Tom Hermann needs a blowout here to get everyone off his back. Tulsa does not do anything particularly well except run a hurry-up offense, but it did not look impressive last week against a very weak opponent in central arkansas. This is a classic get-well game.

 

9/8     ARIZONA ST+6 over michigan st – W

Basically 2 teams that are even talent-wise. Spread seems to be based upon last years results and the perception of Herm Edwards.

2018 NCAAF Week 1 Picks

09/03/18 Monday     FLORIDA ST-6.5 over virginia tech – L

virginia tech dismissed a starting corner, a nickel back and lost a JUCO CB transfer to injury. Of the 10 linebackers and defensive backs to make at least 10 tackles last season, nine are gone

 

08/30 Thursday MINNESOTA-17.5 over new mexico st -W

new mexico st opens on Sun 8/25 against wyoming in the late afternoon and then has to travel to MINN for a Thu afternoon game? This is MINN opener so they will be well rested.

 

09/01 washington st-3 over WYOMING – W

The talent differential is very large. Mike Leach’s Air Raid offense is plug and play so it is unlikely there will be a huge dropoff despite the turnover in QB & receivers. This will be wash st’s opener so they will be well rested while wyoming has to travel to NEW MEXICO ST the previous week.

 

09/01 auburn-2.5 over washington – W

Neutral field but in auburn’s backyard and washington has to travel cross country so a +2 advantage for auburn. auburn has the better talent and the better QB. wash is missing their best receiving TE in Hunter Bryant and their LT Trey Adams is coming back from an ACL.

 

09/01 NOTRE DAME+3 over michigan – W

Teams with equal rosters except at QB where Shea Patterson is a much better passer than Winbush. However, it is his first game at Michigan so don’t expect a peak performance while Winbush had a full year of starts.

NFL Playoffs

Personal Picks     1-2

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01/06 Saturday     ten+7.5 over KC – W

Have you seen KC’s defense? They can’t stop anybody so expect a backdoor cover.

 

01/06 Saturday      LAR-5.5 over atl – L

Great offense against a something-doesn’t-feel-right offense. Losing Kyle Shanahan as o-coordinator has had a big impact on ATL’s offense. Meanwhile the Rams offense under McVay look great with all kinds of creativity and timing.

 

01/07    NO-6 over car – L

Carolina can stop the run, but New Orleans has Brees hitting 72% of his passes and is averaging 8.1 YPA. Carolina’s run game is pretty poor except for Cam Newton. It is too much to ask for 1 player. Cam’s numbers are pretty poor this year at 6.7 YPA, 16 INTs and 35 sacks.

NFL Week 17 Picks

Computer Picks

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Personal Picks     2-2-0

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12/31     nyj/NE under 44 – W

Bryce Petty is making his third start this season and 7th of his career. 13 degrees with 10MPH winds is the forecast. Excpect Patriots to kill the clock more in this game than usual to shorten the game and avoid risk of injury.

 

12/31    cin/BAL under 40.5 – L

24 degrees with 8MPH wind is the forecast. Cin is banged up on the o-line so don’t expect Dalton to hang on to the ball. BAL will try to run to exploit CIN weak run D.

 

12/31     kc/DEN under 38 – L

Paxton Lynch making is 2nd start of the season and 4th of his career.  Forecast is 28 degrees with 8 MPH winds. A good chance KC will rest Alex Smith in the 2nd half. Definitely will not be taking any chances with him in a meaningless game.

 

12/31    dal/PHI under 39.5 – W

Doubt Foles will play the 2nd half since he is already their backup and the game is meaningless. Forecast is 22 degrees with 15 MPH winds.

NFL Week 15 Picks

Overall       131-97-11   56.5%         +24.3 units

Computer Picks     4-0-0

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Based on the Bounce System:

12/17     dal+3 over OAK – W

 

Based on the Total Bounce System:

12/17     mia/BUF over 39.5 – W

12/17     bal/CLE under 40 – W

 

Based on the Total Caution System:

12/17    atl/TB under 48 – W

 

Personal Picks     1-0-0

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12/17.    lar over SEA – W

SEA Probably missing 2 more probowlers on defense with Wright doubtful and Wagner very questionable. McVay seems like an offensive genius with the Goeff and Gurley dramatic turnarounds, so look for him to exploit this mismstch. Rams outplayed them earlier in the year; even though they lost, they outgained them375-241.

NCAAF Week 15 Picks

Personal Picks     1-0-0

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12/08     army/navy under 45.5 – W

Both teams run the triple option so no surprises. Both teams had two weeks to practice. This is a super-heated rivalry so expect a lot of hard-hitting.

 

NFL Week 14 Picks

Computer Picks     1-2-0

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Based on the Coaching System:

12/10     NYG+3.5 over dal – L

 

Based Upon the Total Bounce System:

12/10     ind/BUF over 39 – L

12/10    nyj/DEN under 41.5 – W

 

Personal Picks     1-2-0

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12/07 Thursday     no+2.5 over ATL – L

Something is off with this atl team. Take NO in a primetime game where they can show their stuff, especially on defense and the running game.

 

12/10 sea+2.5 over JAC – L

Wilson over Bottles in an important game. Florida is not a bad trip this time of year.

 

12/10.    phi+1 over LAR – W

Phi off a loss where they totally outgained their opponent. Rams are good but Phi is having a special year.