NCAAF Week 4 Picks

Overall NCAAF Week 4 Record    6-3-0

Computer Picks     4-2-0

==============

Based on the Top10 System:

September 23, 2017    FLORIDA ST-13 over nc state – L

September 23, 2017    GEORGIA-5 over miss state – W

September 23, 2017    michigan-10 over PURDUE – W

September 23, 2017    ucla+8 over STANFORD – L

 

Based on the Caution System:

September 23, 2017    georgia state/CHARLOTTE under 51.5 – W

 

Based on the Game Day System:

September 23, 2017    unlv+40.5 over OHIO ST – W

 

 

Personal Picks     2-1-0

============

9/22 utah-3 over ARIZONA – W

Utah has a dynamic QB in Huntley while AZ has a below average defense.  Utah’s defense will be tested by AZ, but so far has not shown any weaknesses. Desert climate should suit Utah.

9/23 MARLYAND-3.5 over central florida – L

Maryland has a significant talent edge having out-recruited UCF every year. They have a freshman QB but he is a 4-star and has looked very good so far.  That probably explains the strange line. UCF had a long 3 week layoff due to a hurricane.

9/23 CALIFORNIA+17 over usc – W

USC off a hard hitting game against texas that they had to tie with a last minute drive and then win in double OT. USC is beat up with many injuries. CAL is much improved on defense and will be able to stay within striking distance. CAL’s new coaching staff seems like a big upgrade and will not be blown out.

NCAAF Week 3 Picks

Overall NCAAF Week 3 Record    6-1-0

Computer Picks     1-1-0

=============

Based on the Top10 System:

September 16, 2017 Saturday        ole miss-3.5 over CALIFORNIA – L

 

Based on the Weak D System:

September 16, 2017 Saturday        oregon st / wash st over 65.5 – W

 

Personal Picks    5-0-0

============

9/15 arizona-23.5 over UTEP – W

Big talent gap. UTEP missing starting QB. Backup is a known quantity (not good). UTEP also lost 8 players to injuries last week. Arizona is off a close loss where their defense played pretty well. Arizona should be able to score at will and even their poor D should be ok against UTEP’s inept offense. Plus this is short road trip for arizona in a familiar desert climate.

 

9/16 ucla/MEMPHIS over 73 – W

2 top QBs in Rosen and Ferguson going at it against mediocre defenses. UCLA has shown they are a pass first team. Memphis will be going for it as this is by far their most exciting home game of the year for them, so expect Ferguson as a senior to impress.

 

9/16 notre dame-13 over BC – W

ND is playing physical on both sides of the ball this year. BC lacks speed and offensive punch to challenge good teams. ND is coming off a close loss to a good Georgia team. BC will feel like practice compared to Georgia.

 

9/16 OHIO ST-30 over army – W

Expect an angry Ohio St team after letting Baker Mayfield plant a flag. Army will give it their all but they are not the same as Navy and Air Force which have gamed the system to get better talent in their academies. This is a good matchup for Ohio St with their great run D against the triple option. They can simply overpower Army with their running game and JT Barrett will not be pressured to make any tough passes.

 

9/16 texas+15.5 over USC – W

USC is rolling offensively, but have not stopped anyone on defense. Texas has the offensive punch to score with them. Tom Hermann is great as a big underdog so expect him and his team to have confidence.

 

 

NFL Week 2 Picks

Week 2 NFL Record     3-3-0

Computer Picks     1-0-0

=============

Based on the Caution System:

September 17, 2017     arz/IND under 44 – W

 

 

Personal Picks     2-3-0

============

9/14 hou/CIN under 38 – W

Total is low, but there are too many factors favoring the under. Starting a rookie QB on a short week. Both teams have terrible offensive lines. Houston has an excellent d-line. Cin has Geno Atkins. Watson does not want to be a running QB, so do not expect a Kaepernick performance. Dalton must be gun-shy after all 4 INTs. Hou lost all 3 TEs last week.

 

9/17 ten-1.5 over JAK – W

Jacksonville played way over their heads last week to trounce houston. TEN has high expectations so this feels like a must win. No Allan Robinson hurts Jak passing game.

 

9/17 min+6 over PIT – L

These teams are pretty equivalent. So take the points.

 

9/17 gb+3 over ATL – L

GB revenge for blowout loss to ATL. Shanahan is no longer o-coordinator for record-setting ATL offense.

 

9/17 dal-2.5 over DEN – L

Dal looked dominate over nyg even though the score was not. Elliott got a reprieve so expect a lot of energy from him. DAL revamped secondary and a healthy Lee makes their D much better. DEN’s weakness is their run D which Dal will exploit.

9/18 det/NYG under 42.5 –

Beckham playing hurt. Detroit pass rush vs weak NYG o-line. Stafford completes a high percentage of passes to keep the clock moving. NYG d-line should be able to win against below avg Det o-line. NYG have only scored more than 21 in 5 of last 17 games!

 

NCAAF Week 2 Picks

NCAAF Week 2 Overall 4-2-0

Computer Picks           1-1-0

=============

Based on the Exhaustion System:

September 9, 2017 Saturday     hawaii+23 over UCLA – L

September 9, 2017 Saturday     toledo-11.5 over NEVADA – W

 

Based on the Top10 System:

September 9, 2017 Saturday     USC-6 over stanford (pass due to Personal Pick) – (W)

 

Personal Picks      3-1-0

============

9/9 stanford+6 over USC (pass due to Computer Pick) – (L)

This is a bad matchup for USC. Stanford’s power run game vs USC’s weak run D. Stanford is not intimidated by USC and always plays them tough.

 

9/9 georgia+5 over NOTRE DAME – W

Georgia has more talent than ND (last 4 recruiting classes have always been better). Starting a true freshman QB in Fromm, but he is a 5-star and looked very good last week, plus his dream has always been to play for Georgia. Like ND’s attitude this year, but expect an even game so take the 5 points.

 

9/9 NORTH CAROLINA+9.5 over louisville – L

NC actually has out-recruited louisville 3 out of 4 years. Lamar Jackson makes louisville a top 25 team. Assuming coach Fedora doesn’t play Brandon Harris at QB, then this looks like great value with 9.5 points at home, especially after an upset loss last week to cal.

 

9/9 CLEMSON-4 over auburn – W

Teams are even in talent. Stidham is the better passer than Bryant, but he didn’t look as good as Bryant last week. Bryant is a dynamic runner which is a big advantage in a big game. This will a nationally televised night game.  Bryant has been with Clemson for 2 years. Stidham just transferred this year, so huge advantage in chemistry, practice and intangibles.

 

9/9 oklahoma+7.5 over OHIO ST – W

Oklahoma’s has one of the best o-lines and should be able to play ohio st’s d-line even. Baker Mayfield will be able to score enough to keep it close. Revenge for last year’s somewhat embarrassing performance at home. Ohio St’s passing game looked pedestrian again last week.

NFL Week 1 Picks

NFL Week 1 Overall  2-5-3

 

Computer Picks

==============

None for week 1

 

Personal Picks     2-5-3

============

9/10 nyj+9 over BUF – T

BUF have a new head coach and are favored by 9! Jets have a top-flight defense and will start McCown who will keep things close.

 

9/10 cle/PIT under 47 – W

cle starting rookie Kizer at QB. Have instant impact with Myles Garrett on D.

 

9/10 HOU-4.5 over jac – L

Savage has better stats than Bortles. Rookie LT against JJ Watt sounds like a nightmare. Football after a hurricane especially in Texas will be a big deal.

 

9/10 sea+2.5 over GB – L

sea o-line will be better than last year. Wilson is healthy. SEA D has everyone healthy plus Sheldon Richardson makes their D-line a monster. Rogers will have to be perfect to beat them. Revenge for blowout loss last year.

 

9/10 SF+4.5 over car – L

SF had a complete makeover with a new coach, GM, QB. Cam Newton regressed last year and is coming off shoulder surgery, so it’s unlikely he’ll be in top form. Hoyer is in a good spot having played with Shanahan for a year.

 

9/10 oak/TEN over 50 – L

Both teams will pass since both secondaries are weak. Titans starting rookie CB in Adoree Jackson. Raiders rookie Conley has been hurt all preseason. Both o-lines are strong and both QBs are still rising.

 

9/10 nyg/DAL under 46 – W

DAL will run Elliott as much as possible since they only have him for 1 game. Giants D is one of the best. Unlikely Beckham will play.

 

9/10 nyg+5 over DAL – L

nyg D will force Dak to beat them. Giants have enough depth to move the ball without Beckham.

 

9/11 no/MIN under 48 – T

MIN has a top defense. Brees can score some but will not go wild. MIN offense did not look good in preseason and their o-line is weak.

 

9/11 DEN-3 over lac – T

Mike McCoy revenge for being fired. Chargers tackles can’t block Von Miller.

 

NCAAF Week 1 Picks

NCAAF Week 1 Overall 6-3-0

Computer Picks      1-2-0

=============

Based Upon Week1 Top10 System:

Sep 02, 2017 Saturday  LSU BYU neutral -12.0 (pass due to personal pick) – (W)

Sep 02, 2017 Saturday  GEO APP home -13.5 – W

Sep 02, 2017 Saturday  TEX MARY home -17.0 – L

Sep 04, 2017 Monday    TEN GTCH neutral -4.0 – L

 

Personal Picks     5-1-0

============

8/31 tulsa/OK ST over 69.5 – W

Tulsa will play super fast. Are all about offense. Okst has excellent an in Rudolph and explosive offense that can overwhelm Tulsa.

9/2 byu+12 over LSU (pass due to Computer Pick) – (L)

BYU lives for these brand name opponents. BYU always has the maturity advantage due to Mormon mission breaks. Magnum is much much better QB than Etling. LSU has a new offensive scheme. BYU’s second game vs LSU’s first game. Pass due to top10.

 

9/2 ala-6.5 over fsu – W

Team off a national championship upset loss. Only way to beat Alabama is big plays and scrambling qb. Saban on opening week is very tough.

 

9/2 PENN ST-32.5 over akron – W

Penn St has the goods this year and are hungry for national attention. akron has no talent. penn st finished strong last year and regained their mojo. have great RB in Saquon Barkley.

 

9/3 west virginia / virginia tech over 54.5 – W

West Virginia likes to play fast and loose on both sides. Virginia Tech was actually even faster last year than WV last year at #20 in pace. Neutral field and divided crowd keeps the stadium quiet for offense.

 

9/3 texas a&m / UCLA under 61 – L

UCLA played fairly slowly last year (#75 in pace) and Josh Rosen coming back from injured shoulder and the running game must be established to keep him healthy. Definitely will see balanced run-pass from UCLA. A&M does not have  a clear #1 QB – always a bad sign.

 

9/3 texas a&m+5 over UCLA – W

Texas A&M has much more talent than UCLA (3 top-10 recruiting classes vs 1). UCLA has to keep Rosen healthy so expect a lot of running and max protection to keep the game close in a non-conference game.